Predicting Academy Awards winners is often a fruitless endeavor. There’s so much politics in play (“he/she didn’t win when he/she should have fifteen years ago, so why not now!”), but it’s still a fun game. I’ve never formally put my predictions out, but with multiple contenders in many categories, why not? With that said, here’s who should win and who will win for the major categories in my Oscars 2015 predictions.
Best Picture
Who Will Win: Boyhood
Who Should Win: Birdman
The thought of the Academy turning a blind eye to a film twelve years in the making seems unthinkable. Boyhood is the greatest coming-of-age story ever told, but that doesn’t make it the best of the year. That honor for me goes to Birdman, a visionary, biting dramedy that shows us things we’ve never seen before.
Actor in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Who Should Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Who Should Be Here: David Oyelowo, Selma
This is easily the closest of the Actor awards, and appears to be a toss-up between Redmayne and Keaton. I just have a feeling Redmayne will win as there’s nothing the Academy loves more than a great biopic performance. Keaton should win, not because it is a “comeback” of sorts for him, but because he was absolutely amazing and showed incredible range in Birdman. Quick mention of David Oyelowo, whose spot looks to have been stolen by Bradley Cooper. That he’s not in the mix either verifies the strength of lead actors this year, or reeks of gross oversight. I’ll go with the latter.
Actress in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Who Should Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Not much of a conversation here. Still Alice isn’t a terribly original piece of work, but it’s supremely acted by Moore in the performance of her career. She’s won just about every award leading up to this, and that won’t change on Oscar night.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Again, this is foregone. And they’ll get it right. You don’t cross Terence Fletcher. Winning is his first and only tempo.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Ah, the Meryl Streep category. It seems like a lock that Patricia Arquette takes home this piece of hardware. While I believe she gives the best performance in the category, this just doesn’t feel like a strong year for supporting actresses.
Directing
Who Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Who Should Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Who Should Be Here: Ava DuVernay, Selma
Writing – Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who Should Win:Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Writing – Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash